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  • Raw salmon and king crab from the seeds of the shelling of Russia.
    카테고리 없음 2022. 3. 26. 10:21

    It's none of my business. There are signs that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will sharply raise the price of Korean "table head." The immediate impact is not easy to feel due to soaring prices such as oil prices. The sharp rise in salmon prices, which were imported over Russia, is a notable part. However, the longer the war is, the more likely it is that various food prices will rise vertically. Some predict that the price of imported agricultural products will more than double. It also adds concerns that the global supply of agricultural and marine products could be in short supply after July depending on the period of international sanctions.

     

    First of all, seafood is the first item that stands out. According to the Noryangjin Fish Wholesale Market on the 25th, prices of imported salmon and king crab are increasing. The average weekly sales price for salmon from the 7th to the 12th, the most recent tally, was 21,600 won per kilogram, up 92.9% from last year's average price (11,200 won). He jumped almost twice as fast. It has something to do with the war in Ukraine. This is because it was traded at 13,100 won per kilogram from February 28 to March 5. King crab prices also jumped. The average weekly sales price from July 7 to 12 was 72,400 won per kilogram, up 26.6% from last year's average price (57,200 won).

     

    However, there is a slight difference in the factors behind the price increase. Salmon is mainly imported by air via Russia. As Russian airspace was closed and imported through a detour route, logistics costs jumped and were reflected in the price increase. A, a self-employed person who runs a sashimi restaurant in Sejong City, said, "Salmon prices have suddenly risen, so we are not able to put salmon in assorted sashimi."

     

    On the other hand, imported king crabs are mainly made in Russia. Although it was not woven into export restrictions designated by Russia, it seems to have been affected to some extent.

     

    Unlike marine products, agricultural products are raising prices with "double" logistics costs and fears. The monthly World Food Price Index, released by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), hit a record high of 140.7 last month. The index is an index that sets the average value of 100 between 2014 and 2016 and evaluates it as a price increase if it is higher and a price drop if it is lower. The figure is marked by a 20.7% surge compared to the same month last year (110.6).

     

    The rise in container costs primarily raised the price of imported agricultural products. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI), which is used as an indicator of domestic import logistics costs, doubled from the same period last year to 4,540.31 as of the 18th. On top of that, the "situation" considering the war situation adds fuel to the price increase flow. Wheat is a representative item. Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters. It accounts for about 29 percent of global exports. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Russia's wheat export forecast for this year is 35 million tons, the second largest in the world, following 37.5 million tons of wheat from the European Union. Ukraine is also the fourth largest in the world with 24.2 million tons. According to the initial forecast, Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports are expected to increase by -4.10 percent and 7.35 percent, respectively, compared to the previous year. However, as the unexpected variable of war intervened, this forecast is likely to change.

     

    Prices of wheat-based items are affected. According to the National Statistical Office, flour prices rose 13.6 percent year-on-year last month. Compared to last December (8.8 percent) and January (12.1 percent), the price increase has increased. Other items are also affected. The prices of processed wheat noodles (28.1 percent), ramen (10.3 percent), pancake flour (30.7 percent), and pasta (13.2 percent) jumped sharply from the same month last year.

     

    In addition to wheat, corn and sunflower seed oil are also mainly produced by the two countries. According to Rabobank, a Dutch financial union, Russian corn accounts for 19 percent of the world's exports and sunflower seed oil for 80 percent. There is already a shortage of sunflower seed oil in Europe. In the case of Korea, the short-term impact was found to be insignificant because there are alternative goods, but we don't know when we will be in the same situation as Europe.

     

    Even "supply shortage" in the event of a prolonged war.

     

    The problem is that this situation could be prolonged. In this case, the price becomes more expensive. Labobank analyzed that if the international community's economic sanctions against Russia continue until July, when the next crop is harvested, the price of wheat could jump to the current ship. Corn prices are also expected to jump 30 percent.

     

    As long as it gets expensive, it's better. There is also a possibility that agricultural and marine products will not be available at all. First of all, in the case of marine products, there are not a few Russian-made items imported to Korea. According to the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, not only king crabs but also imported crabs are 100% Russian. As seeds dry up in the East Sea due to overfishing, most of the pollacks depend on imports, with Russian production accounting for 96.1%. 93.6 percent of imported cod are from Russia.

     

    Among agricultural products, wheat and corn for feed are feared. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, stocks that can be used until July and June are secured, respectively. However, the government has to consider the difficulties of supply and demand. An official from the New York branch of the Korea Agro-Fisheries and Food Distribution Corporation (aT) said, "If bottlenecks in the logistics sector are added, it may be difficult to secure as well as bear the price of raw materials. We need to be prepared for this."

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