• Kim Jong Un's ICBM Aims at Biden's Indifference
    카테고리 없음 2022. 3. 26. 07:42

    The Labor Newspaper reported on the 25th that Kim Jong-un, the general secretary and chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the North Korean Workers' Party, gave on-site guidance on the test launch of the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) "Hwaseong-17 It is the first time that General Secretary Kim has issued a handwritten order to launch a missile since the launch of the "Hwaseong-15 Type" on November 29, 2017.


    General Secretary Kim Jong-un said, "The emergence of strategic weapons in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea will once again make the world aware of the power of our strategic forces," adding, "Our national defense will thoroughly prepare for a long-term confrontation with U.S. imperialism."


    According to the "Handwritten Order" released by the Rodong Shinmun, General Secretary Kim approves the test launch on the "Formula Report that has completed preparations for the test launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles 'Hwaseongpo-17'" prepared by the Ministry of Military Industry. It will be launched on March 24. Shoot bravely for the great dignity and honor of your country and people!"


    Kim "Preparing for a long-term showdown with the U.S.""Can't wait for more unresponses." Judgment.


    Based on Kim's handwritten order, the Rodong Sinmun reported that the test-launch of the new intercontinental ballistic missile, Hwaseong Fortress-17, was carried out under the direct guidance of Kim Jong-un. It is a choice that exceeds both "time" and "content" expectations by Korean and U.S. experts that it is very likely to launch a long-distance rocket under the pretext of "reconnaissance satellite" around the 110th anniversary of President Kim Il-sung's birth (April 15). Moreover, North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch came 1577 days (4 years, 3 months and 23 days) after declaring the completion of the nation's nuclear force with the test launch of the Mars-15 type on November 29, 2017.


    Contrary to expectations, it can be seen that North Korea has made a strategic judgment that it cannot wait any longer for the U.S. administration's intercontinental ballistic missile launch in 1,577 days after taking off the package of launching a long-range rocket for a reconnaissance satellite.


    "The U.S. hostile policy and military threats have reached a critical point," Kim Jong-un said at the sixth session of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party on Jan. 19, adding, "We will reconsider all measures to build trust with the U.S. and quickly review all temporarily suspended activities." In other words, the moratorium on nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missiles has already been announced. However, President Biden never mentioned "North Korea" in his State of the Union address to Congress on the 1st. President Biden has devoted diplomatic resources to withdrawing troops from Afghanistan, the aftermath, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the restoration of the Iran nuclear deal, and has not taken any action beyond diplomatic investigations. In other words, North Korea is not a priority. The North Korean government seems to have judged that it is difficult to expect even active negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea for the time being, let alone "relieving sanctions against North Korea" from the Biden administration. A senior official in the field of unification, diplomacy and security pointed out on the 25th, "The Biden administration's indifference to North Korea, which has focused only on passive management without focusing diplomatic resources on resolving North Korea-U.S. issues, played a big role in Chairman Kim Jong-un's decision to launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles.


    U.S.-Russia confrontation over the U.S.-Russia "Ukra crisis"It is difficult to impose additional Security Council sanctions. anticipation


    Second, it seems that the U.N. Security Council will not be able to effectively respond to North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile launches due to the confrontation between the U.S. and Russia in the wake of the U.S.-China hegemony and strategic competition and Russia's armed invasion of Ukraine. The U.N. Security Council convened an open meeting at 3 p.m. on the 25th (local time), but expectations are low that it will agree on quick and effective additional sanctions against North Korea due to conflicts and conflicts between the U.S., China, and Russia. The U.N. Security Council will convene an open meeting on the occasion of North Korea's nuclear test or intercontinental ballistic missile launch on 1555 days (four years, three months and three days) since resolution 2397 was adopted on Dec. 22, 2017. A former high-ranking government official said, "The U.N. Security Council has virtually become inoperable due to the U.S.-China-Russia conflict," adding, "Chairman Kim cannot be unaware of this situation." "North Korea's nuclear opportunism - why did Kim Jong-un choose to take advantage of the Ukrainian crisis," said Sumi Woodrow Wilson, head of the South Korean research center, in an article published in "Forein Appears" on Monday. Terry also pointed out that Russia and China, which hold the key to U.N. Security Council sanctions, will not approve sanctions against North Korea in confrontation with the U.S. due to the war in Ukraine.


    North Korea, China, and Russia seek to restore "three-way cooperation"


    Third, it may be a strategic step to use the "U.S.-China triangular strategy game" (U.S.-China hegemony and strategic competition, U.S.-Russia confrontation, and China-Russia cooperation) as an opportunity to restore the three-way cooperation system in the north of North Korea, China-Russia. The fact that North Korea, which has regarded independence and sovereignty as absolute values, voted against both U.N. Security Council resolutions condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine (March 1 and March 24) suggests a lot. North Korea's "opposition" is far more pro-Russian than China's choice of abstention on both occasions. The three-way cooperation system between North Korea, China and Russia was a strong pillar of North Korea's economic and security during the Cold War.


    In particular, President Biden's attempt to strengthen sanctions and siege networks against Russia while visiting Europe will inevitably lead to President Biden's response to North Korea. This could have the effect of helping China and Russia by turning even part of the diplomatic resources that the Biden administration will devote to the "double confrontation" front in China and Russia to "North Korea." In short, it is highly likely that General Secretary Kim has decided that the "test launch of the 17th new intercontinental ballistic missile" could stimulate the Biden administration, support China and Russia, but fail or delay the U.N. Security Council's additional sanctions.


    A drum that goes over the red line, with a bigger provocation,


    As North Korea crossed the red line by launching intercontinental ballistic missiles, it is generally evaluated that it is likely to enter a more destructive provocation in the future. In particular, amid confusion over South Korea's regime change period, the "Sunday," the anniversary of President Kim Il-sung's birth, and additional provocations may be launched around April when the ROK-U.S. joint drill is scheduled. However, some analysts say that North Korea still has room for intercontinental ballistic missiles launched by North Korea to pass over Japan. Christopher Green, a senior researcher on Korean Peninsula affairs at the International Crisis Group, pointed out in the Wall Street Journal that the launch flew higher and farther than before, but did not pass over Japan, saying, "It is not a game changer." He pointed out, "North Korea is certainly aware of this."


    Meanwhile, a military official told reporters on the 25th, "The South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities are closely analyzing North Korea's report on the new Hwaseong-17 type in an open report this morning." The official no longer answered the question, "Then does it mean that it is not Hwaseong-7?" The military and intelligence authorities are reportedly conducting further analysis on the previous day, believing that North Korea may have released photos taken during the previously undisclosed Mars-17 performance test, even though it actually fired an intercontinental ballistic missile.

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